Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 20.884416 22.029243 23.229508 24.586282 26.082957 27.689996 29.554685
2026-02-01 18.984034 20.538355 22.241224 24.260970 26.612256 29.290024 32.610254
2026-02-08 17.726908 19.478946 21.451802 23.865326 26.777660 30.232379 34.726879
2026-02-15 16.868438 18.768377 20.955891 23.701588 27.117394 31.316614 37.023242
2026-02-22 16.454682 18.524605 20.958801 24.091180 28.107919 33.229123 40.516863
2026-03-01 15.810534 17.954136 20.514864 23.872587 28.279921 34.063012 42.607418
2026-03-08 15.061301 17.211586 19.810050 23.265166 27.880857 34.072712 43.495917
2026-03-15 14.535565 16.716489 19.382825 22.979121 27.871747 34.589643 45.144772
2026-03-22 14.364633 16.651003 19.487322 23.382777 28.808324 36.489450 49.089979
2026-03-29 14.138778 16.501786 19.470675 23.613909 29.507493 38.088761 52.752520
2026-04-05 13.916088 16.344200 19.430869 23.803225 30.148215 39.640962 56.535942
2026-04-12 13.598090 16.049157 19.193776 23.701167 30.347808 40.514875 59.239182
2026-04-19 13.193223 15.637283 18.797979 23.375425 30.221627 40.904392 61.206211
2026-04-26 12.810886 15.243537 18.412789 23.047098 30.071576 41.243231 63.137258
2026-05-03 12.443375 14.856829 18.021473 22.688579 29.847426 41.430047 64.782308
2026-05-10 12.171265 14.588598 17.781873 22.537600 29.934029 42.145906 67.623616
2026-05-17 12.089117 14.571815 17.886844 22.895268 30.846148 44.381141 74.165992
2026-05-24 11.827451 14.302615 17.628156 22.694669 30.835674 44.951127 77.056749
2026-05-31 11.463150 13.883903 17.146189 22.136730 30.203620 44.318975 76.966537
2026-06-07 11.210234 13.612073 16.864723 21.873697 30.049535 44.572324 79.116516
2026-06-14 11.168760 13.629548 16.994310 22.244826 30.984066 46.991877 87.384443
2026-06-21 11.080406 13.578594 17.022423 22.457167 31.657051 48.971364 95.096872
2026-06-28 10.984522 13.513846 17.027256 22.631001 32.271051 50.898283 103.323535